3 days ago Australia Leave a comment 5 Views. International Journal of Climatology, 34: 1157–1168. This information feeds into the final outlook for the season seen in Table 1. Key Points. This owes to a moderate-to-strong La Niña signal, which the models are capturing, increasing forecast confidence. Ben Macartney. West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland. During recent historical La Niña events, November has been drier than normal for many parts of the country aside from the far northern North Island. New Zealand should also remain vigilant as the season unfolds. Cyclone Harold struck Vanuatu this year with winds of up to 285 kph. Summary of analogue, dynamical and deterministic guidance for the ICU TC outlook. The dynamical guidance generally agrees with the analogue guidance for TC count and severity, but has two distinct clusters of above normal amounts of activity (Coral Sea and south of Vanuatu and Fiji). The models have generally been too wet and the persistence of high pressure weigh into an outlook that leans drier. Investment outlook 2021. However, there is the potential for elevated activity near and west of the International Date Line (Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Coral Sea region) with normal or below normal activity to the east. A great year for risky assets . Several analysts have published transportation outlook reports for 2021 that are calling for continued strength in the trucking markets. Four cyclones are expected to form in the Coral Sea this season in what is expected to be an above average season for tropical cyclones. The Australian region has a 66% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, which is the same as a 34% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. The table is therefore only generally indicative of how many cyclones might be expected for any given island group for the coming season. 07 NOV 2020. Current Hazards. NIWA can confirm the arrival of La Niña conditions. The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. Observations; Infrared Satellite; Visible Satellite; Forecasts. The new research report studies, the regional presence of Cyclone Dust Collectors Market during the … [1] The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is an extensive Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation feature that contains one of Earth’s most expansive and persistent convective cloud bands. Elevated risk of TC activity exists for New Caledonia, while normal activity is expected for  Vanuatu, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea and Tokelau (See Table 1 and Table 4; Figure 1, 2 & 3). TCO-SP (University of Newcastle) deterministic model summary. Significant wind, waves and rainfall are possible from ex-tropical cyclones. Forecast confidence for temperatures is high. The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. Outlook . A total of 9 named cyclones are expected this coming season (spread of 8-10 based on past analogues), which is close to or slightly below normal activity. Renwick, 2013. Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance). Activity in general is expected to increase during the late season, especially for islands west of the International Date Line around the Coral Sea. Samoa National Statement Tropical Cyclone and Climate Outlook 2020-2021. The Bureau said La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean and average to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures to the north of … This TC count range overlaps with the analogue guidance. Download Outlook Webinar On Demand. We have subjectively rounded the total mean count upward from 8.2 to 9 this season to include the possibility of a category 5 cyclone based on current conditions and expected outcomes for the coming season. All rights reservedPrivacy Policy, 2016, Free phone within New Zealand: 0800 RING NIWA (0800 746 464) Contact details, Principal Scientist - Forecasting and Media, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook, Air quality monitoring with low-cost sensors, ICES Expert Working Group Meetings – April 2017. Analogue, dynamical and deterministic model guidance for the SW Pacific show relatively good agreement for the coming season (Table 1). Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance). The Bureau of Meteorology's Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the … The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. Nevertheless, the maritime region between New Caledonia and New Zealand appears to have elevated risk for TC activity this season, and extra caution for those navigating that area (especially during the late season) is warranted. This is expected to be associated with northeasterly air flow anomalies, a signature of La Niña. In the Pacific Islands, please contact your local national meteorological service for information about how this guidance should be interpreted. This provides confidence in the statistical outlook for expected cyclone strengths, and support for a conservative range of 3-4 severe tropical cyclones for this outlook. Follow guidance from respective national meteorological agencies and local authorities for storm warnings and … Samoa National Statement Tropical Cyclone and Climate Outlook 2020-2021. Fitch Ratings forecasts nominal home prices to be mostly stable in 2021 for the countries covered in this report. The analogue guidance has one primary cluster of enhanced activity extending from the Coral Sea to the south of New Caledonia. The 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season is a currently ongoing period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. Development of an enhanced tropical cyclone tracks database for the southwest Pacific from 1840-2011. International Journal of Climatology, 32: 2240–2250. Western Australians are urged to be aware of cyclone risks in WAs North, with an expected increase in intrastate tourism over summer likely to see more people in high-risk areas. The cooler than average equatorial SSTs, associated with La Niña, are forecast to be enveloped by warmer than average SSTs about much of the Southwest Pacific. The model, the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Australia (TCO-AU), indicates normal to above normal tropical cyclone activity with 11 cyclones expected in total, Australia-wide. The official 2020/2021 TC Season will begin on 01 November 2019 and will end on 30 April 2020. Unpublished MSc Thesis, University of the South Pacific, 155 Pages. Category 5 strength cyclones, where sustained winds exceed 199 km/h, have occurred in some years (known as ‘analogue’ seasons) with similar conditions like what exists ahead of the 2020/21 season. TOPICS: Economic Outlooks | U.S. Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest TC activity, with an average of about two or three named cyclones passing close to those islands each year. The table below shows the probabilities (or percent chances) for each of three categories: above average, near average, and below average. The Outlook uses six identical (analogue) cyclone seasons based on statistical analysis of these analogue seasons. LA NIÑA TO TRIGGER HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THIS SUMMER. The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. ABC Weather / By Kate Doyle. The November Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) suggests normal to below normal TC activity for the remaining 2020/21 Southwest Pacific TC season (1st December 2020 to 30th April 2021). A Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone climatology and linkages to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. TCO-SP also provides a different view from analogue and dynamical approaches. MAJOR BUSHFIRE THREAT FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA . The Australia Bureau of Meteorology monitoring of the Niño3.4 region (central-western equatorial Pacific Ocean) shows sea surface temperature anomalies are below 0.8°C. Trends in the ocean-atmosphere system continued and New Zealand’s weather patterns became more aligned with La Niña throughout October. doi:10.1002/joc.2412. The spatial anomalies shown for this TC outlook strongly indicate reduced risk of cyclones for American Samoa, French Polynesia, and the Cook Islands. Significant rainfall, extreme winds, hazardous marine conditions and coastal damage are all possible leading up to and during these events. This is the first year the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) product is available and we have incorporated it into the ICU outlook to produce a consensus outlook. Tags Cyclone North Queensland Queensland. As with most years, TC activity is expected to increase during the second half of the season from February-April. If the green line is inside the middle … On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR per season. Tropical storm (cyclone) density anomaly forecast to be near or above normal from the Gulf of Carpentaria to the International Date Line and near or below normal to the east. For the current fiscal year that ends in March 2021, the government cut its gross domestic product forecast to a 5.2% contraction, which would be the biggest annual slump on record. Forecast information from local and global guidance models is used to indicate the deviation from equal chance expected for the coming three-month period, with the following outcomes the most likely (but not certain) for this region: Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Wellington. A Microsoft 365 subscription offers an ad-free interface, custom domains, enhanced security options, the full desktop version of Office, and 1 TB of cloud storage. … Therefore, all communities should remain alert and well-prepared for severe TC events. 2020-2021 Tropical Cyclone (TC) Season Outlook. Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook. Multi-model ensemble forecast air pressure anomaly (hPa), January-March 2021; red (blue) shades indicate above (below) normal air pressure; areas of below normal pressure in the tropics can indicate an increased potential for tropical cyclone genesis, Information about the dynamical models used. There is very good agreement across the dynamical climate models with regard to forecast rainfall, air pressure, rainfall, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Southwest Pacific. Table 3: Previous analogue seasons and intensity of TCs that occurred in the Southwest Pacific during the November-April TC season . The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. It should be noted that there are only very minor differences in terms of the TC risk that are ascribed using the consensus method relative to previous years that used the analogue guidance supported by the dynamical guidance. 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